Derby County: Back in the Championship, But Can They Stay Up?
Derby County's return to the Championship is a testament to their resilience, but the road ahead looks bumpy. Can Paul Warne's tactics and the team's experience be enough to secure their survival?
Written by: Eirik Aase (Follow me on Twitter)
From 2014 to 2019, Derby County found themselves in the Championship playoffs four times, yet each time, their Premier League dreams were dashed. It was almost as if a curse hung over the team, and off-field problems began to pile up like a house of cards. Then-owner Mel Morris was tired of pumping money into the club but struggled to find a buyer. As a result, Derby sank deeper and deeper into what turned out to be a financial black hole. The club suffered points deductions, went into administration, and ultimately faced a predictable relegation to League One two years ago.
After relegation, it seemed like Derby County might cease to exist, but thankfully, Derby fan and former pilot David Clowes swooped in as a savior. He spent £55 million to rescue Derby from administration in 2022 and has since ensured stability and tranquility at Pride Park. This summer, he announced that the club is debt-free and has a healthy Championship budget, but he's also open to other investors coming in to help the club take the next step.
In other words, these are good times for the long-suffering Derby supporters who have endured countless setbacks in recent years. The playoff losses were undoubtedly painful for the fans at the time, but the feeling of seeing the club on the brink of collapse is something else entirely. After such an experience, one becomes incredibly grateful to even have a stadium to go to, and the events of recent seasons may have led to lower expectations among fan base compared to the years before their relegation to League One. Perhaps lower expectations are what can give Derby a great season back in the Championship.
Manager
Who is that guy with the big hat that looks like it was bought in the club shop? That's Derby County manager Paul Warne. Previously, he stood on the sidelines with a Rotherham United hat, but now the Rams logo adorns his headwear. Warne is a familiar face to anyone who has followed the Championship for a while. The 51-year-old had numerous seasons at this level during his time with The Millers. Warne took over as Rotherham manager back in 2016 and led the team until he chose to drop down a level to Derby in September 2022. During his time at Rotherham, he achieved promotion from League One three times, but also suffered the same number of relegations from the Championship.
Warne's first season at Derby ended with a seventh-place finish, and Warne himself was not satisfied with that. Before last season, there were major changes at Pride Park, with The Rams having almost an entirely new team in place. It turned out to be a smart decision. Warne guided the club straight back to the Championship, securing his fourth(!) promotion from League One. Now the question is whether he can avoid a quick return to League One, as was always the case when he was at Rotherham. In terms of playing style, Warne has remained true to much of what he did at Rotherham. Derby hasn't been focused on dominating possession but has instead been a very strong defensive unit. They conceded little in open play and ended up with only 37 goals against. Both in attacking and defensive set pieces, Derby was the best in League One, and those are qualities that will come in handy in the Championship as well.
The Squad
It seems highly likely that the towering Swede Jacob Widell Zetterström will be Derby County's new first-choice goalkeeper this season. The Djurgården goalkeeper has openly spoken about the interest from Derby, while some media outlets report that the clubs are close to agreeing on a price. We'll just have to wait and see what happens on that front, and at the time of writing, only Josh Vickers is available in goal after Joe Wildsmith left Pride Park this summer. Vickers has some experience in League Two and League One with Lincoln City and Rotherham United, but I'm unsure if he's ready to be the first-choice goalkeeper in the Championship at this time.
Last season, Derby alternated between a back four and a back five. They will likely do the same this season as well. Curtis Nelson will probably be in central defense regardless of the formation. He started every game in the promotion season and has previously shown he can do a good job at this level. The 31-year-old's experience at this level will be important for Derby, and alongside Nelson, Eiran Cashin will be a player to watch. The academy product has turned 22 and was a regular starter last season. He has already played over 100 games for the club and had some Championship experience with Derby when they were relegated two years ago. Veteran Sonny Bradley played quite a bit last season and can both compete for playing time and provide backup when needed. Additionally, Derby has center-back Jake Rooney in reserve, but he is out with an injury for several months.
At full-back, we find several players with plenty of Championship experience. On the right side, Ryan Nyambe and Kane Wilson are potential candidates. Wilson never quite made it last time he was in the Championship but might have his breakthrough at this level this season. Nyambe has many seasons in the Championship under his belt and can also do a job in central defense when Derby opts for a back five. In addition to Wilson and Nyambe, Joe Ward is also in the mix. Like Wilson, he is strong offensively but not as good defensively as Nyambe. In other words, Warne has several options at right-back.
On the left side, Craig Forsyth is back in the Championship. He has been at Derby since 2013 and is still going strong. Forsyth was a key player in Derby's defense during the good years but has also been with Derby through the tough times. It's great to see him still playing in the Derby jersey, and his competitor on the left side is Callum Elder. Elder has had plenty of game time in the Championship for Hull City but joined Derby last summer. His debut season at Derby was marred by injuries.
In central midfield, there will be major changes this season. Conor Hourihane, Max Bird, Korey Smith, and Louie Sibley are all gone from last season. The first three were the most trusted midfielders for Derby when they were promoted, but now other players have to take over the baton. Ebou Adams was on loan last season, but this summer, he has been signed permanently from Cardiff City. Ben Osborn is another new signing in Derby's midfield. He can play both in midfield and on the left side and could quickly become a key player this season. He has a past as a Nottingham Forest player but is originally from Derby. It remains to be seen if he will tattoo both the Forest and Derby logos on his calf like Lars Bohinen has done.
Liam Thompson, Tyrese Fornah, Darren Robinson, David Ozoh, and Kenzo Goudmijn are five other players who could compete for playing time in central midfield. The latter two are new faces at Pride Park, having been signed from Crystal Palace and AZ Alkmaar, respectively. Ozoh has arrived on loan, while Goudmijn has joined the club permanently. Looking further up the pitch, we find Tom Barkhuizen, Nathaniel Mendez-Laing, and Corey Blackett-Taylor as options in wider roles in Derby's attack. These are the same players who were trusted on the wings when Warne opted for a formation with wingers last season.
New signing Kayden Jackson can also be used on the wing, although he is versatile and can contribute up front as well. James Collins got the most playing time at striker last season and has previously shown he can do a good job in the Championship. This season, he will have competition or perhaps company up top from Jerry Yates. He arrives on loan from Swansea City and hopes to elevate his game after a disappointing debut season in Wales. Additionally, Derby has an 18-year-old youngster in Dajaune Brown, who is back after a successful loan spell at Gateshead, as well as an old Championship acquaintance in Conor Washington.
What do I think?
It's good to have Derby County back in good company. Such a large and historic club certainly belongs at this level, and it's easy to wish the fans success after the difficult years. Whether there will be much to celebrate this season, however, I'm unsure about. Paul Warne had significant trouble establishing Rotherham United in the Championship after promotion from League One, and now it will be interesting to see if the same happens with Derby.
Last season's promotion was impressive, but life in the Championship is something completely different from what Derby experienced in League One. Don't let Ipswich Town's promotion to the Premier League fool you, the gap between the Championship and League One is still very large. A quick look at Derby's squad makes me think it could be a tough season at the bottom of the table for the Rams. They have several players with Championship experience, and that could prove invaluable when winter sets in.
Derby has lost some key players from the promotion season, and I'm unsure if the players they now have at their disposal are better than those they had when they were promoted. However, the good cover in most positions, as well as Warne's flexible approach to formations, could be a strength for Derby this season. Derby's defense was very good in League One, and I think they can continue that in the Championship as well. Both because Warne is skilled at setting up a team that is solid defensively, but also because the entire backline is both experienced and has Championship experience.
I don't think Derby is good enough offensively to be a big positive surprise this season. The squad overall doesn't look particularly good in terms of quality, while they have quite a few aging players expected to play key roles. Experience is valuable, but too many players past their prime might not be ideal. What makes me believe Derby can stay up is their solid defense and the experience within the squad.
Therefore, I'm placing The Rams just above the relegation zone in this year's prediction.
Prediction: 21st